May 29 - June 2 Currency Watch

This will be the 3 pairs I will focus on next week.
Short EUR/USD, Short EUR/CAD, Long NZD/USD

For next week, this is what I will do :
a. Trade on a 4Hr Timeframe. Based on Fibo derived from EMS 5/20 cross over.
b. For long trade : Buy when prices are moving up. Buy each retracement. Keep buying until the last retracement purchase turned out losses. That may be a time for trend change.  Reverse this for Short position.
c. Respect all the Opening/Closing line drawn on the MT4 charts. These are usually when retracement takes place.

Act on these commitments.
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May 29th Monday. 10.58am

Short entry made for EUR/CAD, and then EUR/NZD.
Both 10K with CityIndex.

Reason for the short :
EURCAD - @ daily timeframe, TDI turned negative and I am pretty bias with EUR currency. Suppect it to fall.
EURNZD - @ weekly, there was a tweezer formation, with a strong red bar, overpowering the previous green.  My only problem is,..can I hang on till end of the week to sell?? Given my quick habit to taking profit out of the above asap.

Trying not to watch this pair too frequently since orders had already been placed.

Cheers !
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Update June 3rd

This is the follow up of above chart. My focus then was on shorting both EUR/CAD and EUR/NZD.
Fortunately only one order was made for shorting EUR/CAD and the chart shows , in white box, that the whole week ended, UP.  EUR continued to show strength, even thought the open interest was showing an increase in puts.
NZD has showed some strength, so I shifted my main focus there. Looking at the weekly chart, it ended the week a doji. I was fortunate to be able to squeeze some money out of this pair despite it's doji candle. I had depended on SHI channel to get out in time, when price was at it's support level. My mind wanted it to break the support, but I decided to follow the market and got out. It bounced from support without me on it. It was a relieve.

This is how the call and put ratio looks like for EUR

The distance between put and call, widen, as seen on the first chart.  2nd chart shows call falling below 1, where 1 is bull/bear neutral.
With open interest like these, how can EUR continue to be strong?   I have to observe, and start to move in when the whole market think like wise,.otherwise, if I think solely, my capital will be diminish if the timing is not right.

Just WAIT till the tide turn.

Performance

May 22 - 26th Performance on City Index

About $130 on Cityindex account - where I am more careful when trading

On Oanda account, stop loss triggered for GBPUSD (Long)  for -$45 or 166pips,
Stop loss triggered for GBP/JPY (Log) for -$22 or 173 pips.

Net performance,.. $63/- Very bad.

Orders still active with Oanda were Long AUD/USD 1k.
Short EUR/AUD 1K, Short EUR/CAD 2k, and Short EUR/USD 1K.

For next week, I have to figure out how to harvest more pips with minimum staring.

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Performance from 29th May to 2nd June.

CityIndex

$190/-
Focus was on  EUR/NZD pair, with one order on Eur/CAD. All shorting the EUR currency.

Performance on Oanda was $17.  Unable to show here coz Oanda does not provide summary,..and transaction was mixed with financing charges and stuff.

Total week's performance was $207, a nice improvement from last week's  $63.

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Week of June 12 to 16

CityIndex

Profit $123. No outstanding currency held over the weekend.

Oanda $80. Outstanding pair, Long AU, paper loss $11.

Net profit for the week, $203, outstanding paper loss $11.

NZD/USD - Long Position

This week's focus are :
Long GBP/USD
Long AUD/USD
Long NZD/USD and
Short USD/CAD.

Looks like possible weakness in the US dollar.

For now, an entry was made with CityIndex for 1 lot ($10K) worth of NZD/USD Long position.

Reason for the Long decision :
1. Daily chart on the left showed Friday closed above triggered bar. Blue box showed triggered bar. Price is moving out of the lower BB.
2. On 4Hr timeframe, positive cross between EMA5/20.  At risk is the resistance level projected by EMA200 (purple line). Last bar @4H closed above the EMA200, giving me hope that the bullish sentiment is still there.
3. Below is the weekly chart. It gave me an impression that price is on an accumulation mode, ready to bounce. Last week was a nice green bar - average size, enough to give me a feeling that it has formed a tweezer.

TP Target, $0.698. (261% fibo on a 4Hr chart). I hope not to set this target and walk away. Not stare at it and trigger my itchy fingers syndrome.

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May 22, about 5.05pm

I peek :(

I am late in recording - that explain the last two green bar above.  At the point of exit, a tweezer was formed @1 hr chart. I had thought to exit first, and to get back in, after a minor correction is made. I was expecting the last 2nd bar to be red, given the tweezer formation. It remained green and what's worst, the next bar continue to be green.

I exited with a small profit of $7.32.

And while writing this update, the last green bar seems to show strength.  My weakness is there, I went in to buy again. Another $10K from CityIndex.  I hope to be above to let the winner run it's course this time round.  I may be merely saying, my will powder to hang on to winners is not there yet.

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May 22nd 8.17pm
Okay, I just slapped myself.  @1Hr TF, price touched 233% fibo and started to shake. Red/green/red/green. It could not get pass the 233% fibo created at 4H EMA5/20 crossed. And given I hate the US session, I quit again.  Closed the order entered above with a profit of $18.62.  And put NZD on alert. I will move in again after a correction. I hope there's correction, for me to move in at a cheaper price.
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May22 10.21pm.

If I had closed my eyes like I said I would, my first order will remain intact till target hit. Instead, I went in and out 3 times,..each time, buying at the higher price than I sold.  Bad habit. I have to convert this dollar earned into pips to get a better idea of my performance.


Here's how it looks like now, Daily & 4Hrly chart . Chart on the right, shows price hitting my target.
When will I ever learn to let go ?

As of now, no more NZDUSD trade. Maybe tomorrow..

EUR/AUD : Short Opportunity

It's late now, I have just updated the COT for May 17th and it showed me an increase in Calls position for Aussie dollar and an increase in Puts for Euro dollar.
Pulled up the above demo chart @4H, and noticed the long red bar 4 bars ago.  Highest level reached was 261% fibo and it retraces after that.
I have a small short position, $1K with Oanda. I will just leave it there as see if prices will start to fall eventually.
Note that I am ttrading based on the info from COT.  TA, price is still trending up.. will see if  COT failed me, or help me to identify the turning point.

Night.

USD/CAD - Shorted again

Just a few hours back, I told myself to stay off the computer and not to hit any buy/sell entry. I am hardly successful in trading the US session.  It's high volatility is something my emotion cannot handle.

Did a Fibo ratio at 4Hr chart in FXDD and quickly hit two 10K$ entry with CityIndex.
First SL at 161% Fibo @ $1.3522.
I will drag the 2nd SL to the horizontal white line, if possible. This line shows previous weeks'opening/closing price level.

I just have to stop staring at the screen, and let price move to that level in its own time.
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May 19, 2017. 5:01pm

 Decided to close this at the first sight of profit today. It was negative throughout the time my order was in. Since CAD call and put turned from more Call to 1, which is balance between call and put ratio, I decided it's game over for USDCAD for now. No more trade on this pair till I observe further. Afterall, today's Friday. If I can, I should exit all position. 

Very small profit S$9.17.

Circled was the point of entry. Comparing it with the earlier graph, price was a long red bar. Obviously the bar wasn't closed when I hit an entry for 20K lots. It is on hindsight, an impulsive entry. I was afraid of losing out when the long red bar appears.  The price went back up as shown above, and it went all the way up to hit the month's open. (month;s open as shown in dotted green line). Thankfully it did not close above that level, for if it did, the trend might probably be upside reversal. It fell and my losses turned into small profit. I exited cos it's Friday and also the current level seems to be a support zone. I do not want to stay around for prices to snap back up. Save my bullets for another day.

Lesson learnt:

Wait for entry bar to close before action. Do not act on impulse.

Respect all Support and Resistance level. Do not assume that it will be broken.

USD/JPY - Shorted

Mentioned earlier the potential short postion for USD/JPY. Went ahead to short it later afternoon and the price continue to fall.  Once it reached the above pink line, I decided to take profit. The pink horizontal line was set by previous weeks opening price. Prices tend to respect all weekly open/close and then to rebound from there. Since COT put/call ratio for Japan hasn't show an increase in Calls, I decided to take my profit off the table, till the strength of Japan yen return.

Total profit for Cityindex 100 units = S$33.27. Oanda $2K order = $4.89.

No outstanding currency pairs to watch and since I usually perform badly during the US session, I decided not to add more trade tonight.

USD/JPY - Possible Weakness

Daily (FXDD demo) chart of USD/JPY.  Shorted this pair with Oanda , just 2K worth.
Reason for short entry:
1. Price projected Lower High and OSC showed Higher High. This is bearish divergence. Although I should have waited for price to close below the BB mid line, I decided to test my 'luck'.
2. Price hoover inside the upper BB, not once penetrating above it. Based on previous studies, if prices almost but did not, touch the upper BB, price will fall towards the lower BB.
3.Price fell below the opening of the week. Dotted yellow line indicate where the week opens. Price went up on Monday above week's open and it has been falling since, crossing below the yellow line, shown below in 4Hr Chart.

Just testing with $2K,..and as of now, it's showing a negative 18 pips 😓. Stop loss will be above the slant green line.
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Update :
I went in to short 100 units with CityIndex, this is the minimum volume allowed.

Currently order, 100 units short with CityIndex and $2K with Oanda.

SPX500 @ Support Level

Above Daily chart of US SPX500. It's now at Monthly support level (red dotted line where price opens at the beginning of the month).  If that price gets broken, I will be jumping in to short this pair.  This line is in conjunction with the trigger red candle stick shown on  April monthend.
While PE ratio for SPX500 is currently at 25.41, it is not yet an extreme case of over value.  PE on May 2009 was 123 !
I am putting this up here, as a reminder for myself to move in with a SHORT position only when that line is breached and NOT BEFORE. My old self would have jumped in with a short entry believing that prices will fall.  I will wait for a confirmation this time.

This is the Open Interest chart from COT. Left showed red line crossing over blue, meaning to say, there is sufficient amount of  Puts demand to push thru' Calls.  Chart of the right shows downward strength of Calls vs Puts. The Bull's not showing any resistance lately.

Watch out for Support to be broken to move in to SHORT.

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Above was written on May 16, 19:12 hr.
I do not know how to add in comments , thoughts, without just editing it. I hate for the above timing to be taken off once I update the below info.

Daily FXDD demo chart above. I didn't pay too much attention, and price plunge. I said i should be keeping an eye here and to short when price fell below the support line. Well....I wasn't looking at it. My attention went to USD/CAD which I shorted and which price went against me. My heart wasn't there anymore , and even if my heart was there,..my fund wasn't there to support the short.

Lesson to be learnt : Identify and keep watch. Not identify and move on trying to find another pair. Stay focus ! I missed yesterday SPX500 plunge.. I have to be single-minded. Focus,..wait and action.

(May 18, 2017  SGP time 10.22PM)

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May 27th Saturday

Daily chart to show how the week ended for SPX500

Price broke the support level and moved back up. 6 straight days up with a doji on the last candle.  Bearish divergence detected...but I am in no position to short this fake bull till the bear actually moved in.

EUR/CAD : Potential downside @ Weekly Timeframe

I would have loved to short this pair real life but having committed to 20K worth of USD/CAD, I do not wish to over stretch my capital of S$2K.

Above are the weekly timeframe and its famous dp signal. This is taken from my demo account, and I have a short position for this pair.
Besides my favourite dp, the Open Interest  showed strength in CAD (more calls) while EUR shows weakness (more put)

Here's CAD open interest chart. Calls has overtaken Put in the first chart. 2nd chart shows the difference between Calls and Puts have been on it's upward trend. Anything above 1 is more Calls than Puts. Anything below 1 indicates the reverse.

Here's how the EUR Open Interest looks like. Looking a mid term, say 2-3 weeks, I am assuming the EUR/CAD price will start to fall.  No risk here since I have not commit any cash to this assumption.

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Latest update : May 19, 2017 9.12am

Shorted EURCAD . Formation of Tweezer @ Daily timeframe.. The overall trend is still up, but I decided to do a short term short, get out by late afternoon today. Blue horizontal line is where I see the price to move in the near future. OSC is showing Lower high, while price move up Higher. Bearish divergence.

Shorted on Oanda, $1K.

USD/CAD : SHORT Position

Open Interest on CAD turned from more Put to Call, with that change, I am looking forward to the strength of Canadian Dollar.

Shorted 20K of USD/CAD on May 9 and May 10 (10K each) at price $1.36772 and $1.36523.

First Take Profit Target = $1.357
Second and Final Take Profit = $1.351

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May 20th, Saturday 11.30am.

This is a follow up on the prices for USD.CAD

If I have left my order alone and not keep looking at it every so often, BOTH the take profit target would have triggered.
My direction was correct, my 2 take profit target would have been hit : IF , IF I had placed my orders, set my target and just WALK AWAY .  So much for the set and forget strategy I wrote few years back on the internet.  Obviously I have too much free time on my hands,..to prevent me from staring at the screen.

Lesson to be learned.
TRY TO KEEP ME BUSY AND STAY AWAY FROM THE SCREEN WHEN A TRADE IS ON !